Harley-Davidson:
Outside In

Sixty-six years of buying what it could build. Ground Truth No. 03, the LinkedIn series in full: four parts, in the order the brief reads, the record, the same sentence, too small to say, the Sprint and the final word. Every figure is drawn from an SEC filing, a company release or a full call transcript, except where marked. The complete brief, with each source linked to the document, is here.

Contact Patch Advisory · William Weppner · September 2026

Part 1 · The Record · 10 slides
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Ground Truth No. 03
Harley-Davidson: Outside In · Part 1 of 4

OUTSIDE
IN.

Sixty-six years of Harley-Davidson buying what it could build. Aermacchi, Buell, MV Agusta, Alta, StaCyc, Hero, KYMCO, Dust. What it paid, what it got, what it was for.

Harley-Davidson, Inc. · NYSE: HOGSeptember 2026
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Route card
Harley-Davidson: Outside In · The route

Four parts.
One thesis.

Sixty-six years of buying what it could build, from the filings. Every figure links to its document in the full brief.

Part 1 of 4 · this post
The Record
Sixteen moves in one table. Brands go. Channels stay.
Part 2 of 4
Same Sentence
Buell, MV Agusta, and the words used both times.
Part 3 of 4
Too Small to Say
Alta, never disclosed. StaCyc, $14.9M, 33 to 1.
Part 4 of 4
The Sprint & the Final Word
1960: an Aermacchi. 2026: a Hero. What it was for.
contactpatchadvisory.com/groundtruth/03/Ground Truth No. 03
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01 / 09
What they said · 5 May 2026 · the new plan
“By using and leveraging existing powertrain, existing platforms, we can have a much broader assortment of motorcycles to present.”
Artie Starrs, CEO · Q1 2026 earnings call

The first new motorcycle under that plan is the Sprint. Its engine is a 440cc single Hero MotoCorp builds in Rajasthan for a ₹2.29 lakh motorcycle.

Same call: “we’re finalizing the specific production plans.”

Source: Q1 2026 call transcriptContact Patch Advisory
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02 / 09

A company leaning on the platforms it already has is opening the plan with one it does not own.

That is not new. It is the sixty-sixth year of it.

So I went back through the record, the filed one rather than the press one, for every time Harley-Davidson went outside for a product. What did it pay? What did it get? How did it end?

Ground Truth No. 03Contact Patch Advisory
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03 / 09
Sixteen moves, 1960–2026 · the ones that fit on a slide
YearBought / licensedCost, as filedHow it ended
1960Aermacchi~$250KSold 1978
1986Holiday Rambler~$155MSold 1996
1993Eaglemark → HDFS$55MKept
1993Buell~$500KShut 2009 · ~$125M
2008MV Agusta$105.1MSold for €1 · $268M lost
2018Alta Motorsn/dGone in 6 months
2019StaCyc$14.9MKept · 21,633 units
2019–20Qianjiang · Hero (licences)n/dKept
2021LiveWire SPAC$100M2027?
2026Dust · KYMCO Honcho$375K cashVia LiveWire

Full table, with the in-house programs and every source linked, in §01 of the brief.

Source: HOG 10-Ks and 8-Ks 1994–2026Contact Patch Advisory
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04 / 09

Two patterns fall out before any analysis

  1. Every purchase that carried its own brand was sold or shut. Holiday Rambler, Buell, MV Agusta, Aermacchi. Three of the four within two years of a CEO change. Same sentence every time.
  2. Every purchase that carried no badge into a Harley segment was kept. Eaglemark’s balance sheet. StaCyc’s balance bikes. Hero’s engine. Qianjiang’s twin. KYMCO’s line. KKR’s capital.
Ground Truth No. 03Contact Patch Advisory
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05 / 09

What the outside moves cost to unwind

MV Agusta filed $268M Buell estimate $125M India / Street estimate $75M LiveWire consolidated $422M

$ millions. MV Agusta is the filed net loss from discontinued operations. Buell and India are the company’s own estimates, never reconciled. LiveWire is the consolidated loss since the spin.

Alta is missing because there is no number to put on it.

Source: HOG 10-K FY2010; 10-Q Q3 2009; 8-K 24 Sep 2020; GT No. 02Contact Patch Advisory
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06 / 09
Same sentence · three CEOs
“…in order to concentrate on its core motorcycle business.”
10-K FY1996 · Holiday Rambler sold
“We must focus both our effort and our investment on the Harley-Davidson brand.”
Keith Wandell · 15 Oct 2009 · Buell shut, MV for sale
“Over the last several years, we leaned heavily into Touring and Electric.”
Artie Starrs · 5 May 2026
Ground Truth No. 03Contact Patch Advisory
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07 / 09
The number that frames everything
StaCyc · bought 2019
$14.9M
Q1 2019 10-Q
LiveWire · SPAC 2021
$1.77B
pro-forma enterprise value
StaCyc units · 2025
21,633
LiveWire motorcycles · 2025
653

The $14.9M acquisition outsells the $1.77B one thirty-three to one.

Source: HOG 10-Q Q1 2019 · LVWR FY2025 resultsContact Patch Advisory
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08 / 09
The thesis
Harley doesn’t want electric. It wants floor traffic.

Harley builds when the product carries the full brand at the full price. Everything below the big twin (a small bike, a balance bike, a battery, a loan book) gets bought, licensed or partnered. Kept when it feeds the dealer. Dropped when it competes with the badge.

Read the whole record with that sentence in hand and it stops looking like a series of mistakes.

Ground Truth No. 03Contact Patch Advisory
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09 / 09
Next · Part 2 of 4

SAME
SENTENCE.

Buell and MV Agusta. $125 million and $268 million. What the two biggest purchases cost, from the 10-Ks and the sale agreement, and the words used both times.

Full brief, every source linked:
contactpatchadvisory.com/groundtruth/03/

Ground Truth No. 03William Weppner
Part 2 · Same Sentence · 10 slides
CONTACT PATCH
Ground Truth No. 03
Harley-Davidson: Outside In · Part 2 of 4

SAME
SENTENCE.

Buell and MV Agusta. What the two biggest outside purchases cost, from the filings, and the words used to end both.

Harley-Davidson, Inc. · NYSE: HOGSeptember 2026
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Route card
Harley-Davidson: Outside In · The route

Four parts.
One thesis.

Sixty-six years of buying what it could build, from the filings. Every figure links to its document in the full brief.

Part 1 of 4
The Record
Sixteen moves in one table. Brands go. Channels stay.
Part 2 of 4 · this post
Same Sentence
Buell, MV Agusta, and the words used both times.
Part 3 of 4
Too Small to Say
Alta, never disclosed. StaCyc, $14.9M, 33 to 1.
Part 4 of 4
The Sprint & the Final Word
1960: an Aermacchi. 2026: a Hero. What it was for.
contactpatchadvisory.com/groundtruth/03/Ground Truth No. 03
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01 / 09
Buell · 1993–2009
1993 · 49% stake
~$500K
secondary source
2008 · units shipped
13,119
$123.1M revenue
14 Oct 2009 · exit cost
~$125M
Q3 2009 10-Q, Note 19
Jobs
~180
80 hourly, 100 salaried

~$70M incentives, inventory and operating costs. ~$14M fixed assets. ~$9M severance. ~$32M contracts. The realized total was never reported on its own.

Source: HOG 10-Q Q3 2009 · 8-K 15 Oct 2009Contact Patch Advisory
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02 / 09
Keith Wandell · five months into the job · 15 October 2009
“The fact is we must focus both our effort and our investment on the Harley-Davidson brand, as we believe this provides an optimal path to sustained, meaningful, long-term growth.”
8-K Ex. 99.1 · filed with the SEC

Erik Buell, eighteen months later: “They didn’t shut down Buell because they were mean.” He was right. They shut it because it was a second brand in a building with room for one.

Source: 8-K 15 Oct 2009 · Powersports Business 14 Mar 2011Contact Patch Advisory
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03 / 09
MV Agusta · bought 8 August 2008
Total consideration
€68.3M
$105.1M · incl. €47.5M of bank debt
Goodwill booked
$85.8M
FY2009 10-K, final allocation
IPR&D written off on arrival
$20.1M
a fifth of the price, day one
Months owned
24
8 Aug 2008 – 6 Aug 2010

Jim Ziemer, announcing it: “Motorcycles are the heart, soul and passion of Harley-Davidson, Buell and MV Agusta.” He retired nine months later.

Source: HOG 8-K 11 Jul 2008 · 10-K FY2009Contact Patch Advisory
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04 / 09

$105 million in. $268 million out.

Consideration $105.1M IPR&D write-off $20.1M 2009 impairment $115.4M 2010 impairment $111.8M Net loss 2008–10 $268.4M

Loss from discontinued operations, net of tax: $29.5M (2008) + $125.8M (2009) + $113.1M (2010). 2.55 times the purchase price, or $11.2M for every month Harley owned it. A $51.0M tax reversal in 2011 nets it to $217.4M.

Source: HOG 10-K FY2009, FY2010, FY2011Contact Patch Advisory
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05 / 09
The sale · 6 August 2010 · the 10-K says “nominal consideration”

The agreement says what nominal means.

Source: Ex. 2.1 to 8-K, 9 Aug 2010 · §2.1.1, §7.1.1, §7.2.2Contact Patch Advisory
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06 / 09
€1, €2 or €3? All three are right.
The shares
€1
The U.S. LLC
$1
The receivable
€1

“€1” is the share price. “€3” is the press adding three nominal payments. “€2” counts only the euros.

The 10-K reports “an immaterial loss on the date of sale.” Also true. By August 2010 there was nothing left to lose.

Source: HOG 10-K FY2010 · 8-K 9 Aug 2010Contact Patch Advisory
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07 / 09
Keith Wandell · 6 August 2010
“Our decision to divest MV Agusta reflects our strategy to focus our efforts and our investment on the Harley-Davidson brand.”
H-D release · MV Agusta sale

1996: “core motorcycle business.”
2009, 2010: “the Harley-Davidson brand.”

The words repeat because the decision does. A second brand that competes with Harley-Davidson for engineering dollars does not survive the next CEO.

Ground Truth No. 03Contact Patch Advisory
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08 / 09

MV is the one time Harley bought big.

It lost 2.55 times the purchase price in twenty-four months and handed the factory back to the family it bought it from. The same Castiglionis took Aermacchi off Harley’s hands in 1978.

The company learned the lesson. Every outside move since has been sized to be forgettable.

Next: the two that were too small to disclose.

Ground Truth No. 03Contact Patch Advisory
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09 / 09
Next · Part 3 of 4

TOO SMALL
TO SAY.

Alta Motors: one sentence, no number, bounded by Alta’s own Form D. StaCyc: $14.9 million, and it outsells LiveWire 33 to 1.

Full brief, every source linked:
contactpatchadvisory.com/groundtruth/03/

Ground Truth No. 03William Weppner
Part 3 · Too Small to Say · 11 slides
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Ground Truth No. 03
Harley-Davidson: Outside In · Part 3 of 4

TOO SMALL
TO SAY.

Alta Motors, which Harley never put a number on. StaCyc, the one purchase that hit every target it was given. Together, what Harley actually wanted from electric.

Harley-Davidson, Inc. · NYSE: HOGSeptember 2026
CONTACT PATCH
Route card
Harley-Davidson: Outside In · The route

Four parts.
One thesis.

Sixty-six years of buying what it could build, from the filings. Every figure links to its document in the full brief.

Part 1 of 4
The Record
Sixteen moves in one table. Brands go. Channels stay.
Part 2 of 4
Same Sentence
Buell, MV Agusta, and the words used both times.
Part 3 of 4 · this post
Too Small to Say
Alta, never disclosed. StaCyc, $14.9M, 33 to 1.
Part 4 of 4
The Sprint & the Final Word
1960: an Aermacchi. 2026: a Hero. What it was for.
contactpatchadvisory.com/groundtruth/03/Ground Truth No. 03
CONTACT PATCH
01 / 10
1 March 2018
“Alta has demonstrated innovation and expertise in EV and their objectives align closely with ours.”
Matt Levatich, CEO · H-D release

No amount. No percentage. The Q1 2018 earnings release is the only Harley-Davidson SEC filing that has ever contained the word “Alta.” One sentence: “Invested in a collaborative agreement with Alta Motors.”

Source: H-D release 1 Mar 2018 · 8-K 24 Apr 2018Contact Patch Advisory
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02 / 10

Search every 10-Q and 10-K, 2018–19. No equity investment. No write-off. One footprint.

+$1.1M +$0.5M −$0.8M −$1.7M 0 +$1.1M Q3 2017 −$1.1M Q3 2018 −$1.7M Q4 2018

“Investment (loss) income” ran at about +$1M a quarter and went negative the two quarters after Alta. No filing attributes the swing. Inferred, not documented.

Source: HOG 10-Q Q3 2018 · Q4 2018 releaseContact Patch Advisory
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03 / 10
Alta’s own paperwork bounds it · Faster Faster, Inc. · CIK 1620298
FiledOfferingSoldInvestors
7 Mar 2016$7.0M convertible notes$1.77M18
2 Jun 2017$26.1M equity$12.4M42
3 Jul 2017$20.3M equity + debt$15.2M24
5 Feb 2018Same round, closed$20.84M30
13 Aug 2018$5.0M bridge note$2.45M4

The round Harley joined closed by amendment on 2 February 2018, four weeks before the announcement. Since July it had grown by $5.65M and six investors. No Form D reports an equity sale after that.

If Harley’s money is in that round, the check was inside $5.65M. Inferred. Harley has never said.

Source: Faster Faster, Inc. Forms D, 2016–2018 · EDGARContact Patch Advisory
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04 / 10
Six months, on the calendar
Source: EDGAR · H-D releases · BRP release · A&R · TechCrunchContact Patch Advisory
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05 / 10

Alta is the cleanest case in the table.

Harley wanted the technology without the partner. It paid a sum too small to disclose to find out what it needed, opened its own lab a week after the split leaked, and built the rest in-house.

Six months. One press release. No number. That is what a cheap option looks like from the outside.

Alta’s co-founder has his own account of what Harley took with it. It is in the brief, on the record, unverified, with a disclosure.

Ground Truth No. 03Contact Patch Advisory
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06 / 10
StaCyc · 4 March 2019 · Q1 2019 10-Q
Total consideration
$14.9M
$7.0M cash at close
Goodwill · intangibles
$9.5M · $5.3M
goodwill tax-deductible
Earn-out, max
$6.54M
three volume milestones
Earn-out, paid
$6.54M
$2.18M × 2020, 2021, 2022

Harley’s filing never explains the other $7.9M. LiveWire’s carve-out statements do. StaCyc hit every volume target it was given.

Source: HOG 10-Q Q1 2019 · LVWR 8-K 30 Sep 2022, 10-K FY2022Contact Patch Advisory
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07 / 10
What it was bought for · their words
“The StaCyc team shares the same vision we have for building the next generation of riders globally.”
Heather Malenshek, SVP Marketing and Brand · 5 Mar 2019
“Kids who are enjoying two-wheeled freedom with their families, connecting through Harley-Davidson dealerships and events. Starting at $649.”
Matt Levatich · Q1 2019 call

Not electrification. The next customer.

Source: H-D release 5 Mar 2019 · Q1 2019 call transcriptContact Patch Advisory
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08 / 10

2025: thirty-three StaCycs for every LiveWire motorcycle

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 0 653 LiveWire motorcycles 21,633 StaCyc

Revenue: $6.1M motorcycles, $19.6M StaCyc, 76% of LiveWire’s product revenue, from a $14.9M purchase of a company that makes $649 balance bikes for three-year-olds.

Source: LVWR FY2025 results, 10 Feb 2026Contact Patch Advisory
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09 / 10
The older precedent · Eaglemark, 1993–1995
Jan 1993 · 49%
$10M
10-K FY1994
Nov 1995 · the rest
~$45M
10-K FY1996

$55M for the business that became HDFS, made $248M in 2024, and that KKR and PIMCO paid 1.75× book for a tenth of in 2025.

The two outside purchases that were kept and made money are the two that make money on somebody else’s product on a Harley dealer’s floor. Neither has ever been asked to build a motorcycle.

Source: HOG 10-K FY1994, FY1996, FY2025Contact Patch Advisory
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10 / 10
Next · Part 4 of 4

THE SPRINT,
AND THE
FINAL WORD.

1960: an Aermacchi. 2026: a Hero. The same hole below the big twin, and somebody else’s engine in it both times. Seven CEOs, one cycle, and what every purchase was for.

Full brief, every source linked:
contactpatchadvisory.com/groundtruth/03/

Ground Truth No. 03William Weppner
Part 4 · The Sprint and the Final Word · 11 slides
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Ground Truth No. 03
Harley-Davidson: Outside In · Part 4 of 4

THE SPRINT,
AND THE
FINAL WORD.

What Harley builds, what it buys, and the rule that falls out. Then the two motorcycles that will test it, and the one thing every purchase was for.

Harley-Davidson, Inc. · NYSE: HOGSeptember 2026
CONTACT PATCH
Route card
Harley-Davidson: Outside In · The route

Four parts.
One thesis.

Sixty-six years of buying what it could build, from the filings. Every figure links to its document in the full brief.

Part 1 of 4
The Record
Sixteen moves in one table. Brands go. Channels stay.
Part 2 of 4
Same Sentence
Buell, MV Agusta, and the words used both times.
Part 3 of 4
Too Small to Say
Alta, never disclosed. StaCyc, $14.9M, 33 to 1.
Part 4 of 4 · this post
The Sprint & the Final Word
1960: an Aermacchi. 2026: a Hero. What it was for.
contactpatchadvisory.com/groundtruth/03/Ground Truth No. 03
CONTACT PATCH
01 / 10
Built in-house · three programs, two outcomes
  1. Street 500/750, 2013. “The first all-new platform in 13 years.” Built in Kansas City and Bawal, India. India exited September 2020, ~$75M. The CFO, 2021: “the unprofitable Street.”
  2. Milwaukee-Eight, 2016. “The ninth Big Twin in its history.” Still the engine of every Touring bike.
  3. Revolution Max, 2021. “A clean-sheet, advanced-design effort.” Pan America, Sportster S, Nightster. A $20,000 motorcycle.
Source: H-D releases · 8-K 24 Sep 2020 · Q3 2021 callContact Patch Advisory
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02 / 10
The rule
Harley develops from within when the product carries the full brand at the full price, and reaches outside for everything below it.

The one time it built its own small bike in its own plants, it lost money, closed the plant, and licensed the segment to the partner who could build the engine for ₹2.29 lakh.

Ground Truth No. 03Contact Patch Advisory
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03 / 10

The first Harley-Davidson Sprint was an Aermacchi.

1960: Harley bought half of the Varese motorcycle division, for about a quarter of a million dollars by the accounts that survive, because the 125cc Hummer left a gap between it and the big twins that Japan was about to fill.

It sold the Sprint for fourteen years, won three 250cc world titles with Walter Villa, and in 1978 sold the factory to the Castiglionis. The same family it bought MV Agusta from thirty years later, and sold it back to for a euro.

Aermacchi dates and prices: secondary sources · see open itemsContact Patch Advisory
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04 / 10
Sixty-six years on · the Sprint returns · on a Hero engine
Source: Hero release Jul 2023 · H-D calls 2025–26Contact Patch Advisory
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05 / 10

Plant and price. Both undecided. Both are the test.

If the Sprint ships from Neemrana

The rule held. The plan’s “existing platforms” include one that belongs to a licensee in Rajasthan.

If it ships from York

It is not a $6,000 motorcycle at a York cost base, and the Street’s history says what happens next.

The company has been trying to fill the space below the big twin with somebody else’s motorcycle since Eisenhower. It has never once filled it with its own.

Ground Truth No. 03Contact Patch Advisory
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06 / 10
The other half of the test · Sportster 883 · 2027
“This has been the most requested motorcycle from both our riders and our dealers … we have the cost at a place where we are comfortable against the expected MSRP.”
Artie Starrs · Q1 2026 call

Air-cooled, ~$10,000, York, per trade reporting. The first air-cooled twin program since the Evolution. A Sportster built in York that makes money at $10,000 would be the first time since 1960 that Harley filled the hole with its own motorcycle.

Source: Q1 2026 call · Motorcycle.com 5 May 2026 (unverified)Contact Patch Advisory
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07 / 10
The cycle · each CEO’s purchases are the next CEO’s focus story
CEOTenureBought or startedSold, shut or reversed
Bleustein1997–2005Buell to ~100%none
Ziemer2005–09MV Agustanone
Wandell2009–15noneBuell · MV Agusta
Levatich2015–20Alta · StaCyc · QJ · ThailandAlta
Zeitz2020–25Hero · LiveWire SPAC · HDFS saleIndia · Street · Sportster
Starrs2025–Sprint · 883 · DustRev Max home · “Electric”

Buell lasted eleven months into a new CEO. MV lasted fourteen. LiveWire is eleven months into Starrs, with the sentence already said, cash to about May 2027, and $75M due to the parent that December.

Source: H-D releases and 8-Ks, 1997–2026 · GT No. 02Contact Patch Advisory
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08 / 10
Analysis, not reporting

The two pieces of LiveWire with a future are the two that were never electric motorcycles.

StaCyc: a dealer-traffic product with a margin and five years of hitting volume targets. Dust: an option on off-road electric that cost $375,000 in cash. The Alta structure, done inside a subsidiary this time.

If LiveWire is sold, merged or wound down, watch whether those two come back into the motor company. That would be the tell.

Inferred · no filing states any such intentionContact Patch Advisory
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09 / 10
The final word
Harley doesn’t want electric. It wants floor traffic.

The Milwaukee-Eight and the Rev Max got built because a $25,000 motorcycle pays for an engine program. A 440 single, a balance bike, a battery and a loan book do not, and every one was bought, licensed or partnered. Kept when it feeds the dealer, dropped when it competes with the badge.

StaCyc is the one part of the electric decade Harley has never had to write down. It is the one that was never an electric motorcycle.

Ground Truth No. 03Contact Patch Advisory
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10 / 10
Ground Truth No. 03 · the question

HARLEY KEEPS WHAT FILLS THE FLOOR AND SELLS WHAT COMPETES WITH THE BADGE.

Which of those is the Sprint?

Full brief, every source linked, corrections log, open items:
contactpatchadvisory.com/groundtruth/03/

Ground Truth No. 03William Weppner · Contact Patch Advisory
CONTACT PATCH
Route card
Harley-Davidson: Outside In · The route

Four parts.
One thesis.

Sixty-six years of buying what it could build, from the filings. Every figure links to its document in the full brief.

Part 1 of 4
The Record
Sixteen moves in one table. Brands go. Channels stay.
Part 2 of 4
Same Sentence
Buell, MV Agusta, and the words used both times.
Part 3 of 4
Too Small to Say
Alta, never disclosed. StaCyc, $14.9M, 33 to 1.
Part 4 of 4
The Sprint & the Final Word
1960: an Aermacchi. 2026: a Hero. What it was for.
contactpatchadvisory.com/groundtruth/03/Ground Truth No. 03
Contact Patch Advisory