Ground
Truth
The announcements in this industry are loud and the numbers behind them are quiet. These briefs read the filings: every figure linked to the document it came from, and every correction published rather than made silently.
No. 01 · LiveWire Group
Five years ago Harley-Davidson told investors LiveWire would do about 100,000 motorcycles, $1.8 billion in revenue and a profit in 2026. It is 2026: 923 motorcycles, $31 million, a $70–80 million loss. One percent of plan. A 386% growth claim sent me into the filings to find out why; the contracts are what I found: two manufacturing agreements that make buying motorcycles value-destructive and not buying them expensive, and a loan that decided how this ends eight months before the quarter everyone is arguing about.
LiveWire: 5 Years In
and 1% of Plan
A tale of two contracts and a loan. Fourteen sections in six parts. Two manufacturing agreements, a loan that changed shape, and the Harley-Davidson read-through. Linked source index and a published corrections log.
Read the brief → The seriesFour parts,
41 slides
The condensed version, in the order the brief reads: The Growth, The Lineup, The Contracts, The Loan and the Final Word.
View the series →PDFs
The full brief registered readers
Part 1: The Growth
Part 2: The Lineup
Part 3: The Contracts
Part 4: The Loan & the Final Word
Route cards · one per post
The route ·
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No. 02 · Harley-Davidson
Add up Harley-Davidson’s own 2026 guidance (motor company, finance company, electric subsidiary) and the enterprise lands between a $15 million loss and a $50 million profit. It made $779 million in 2023. The subsidiary is guided to lose more than the motor company is guided to make. This brief reads the parent’s filings: what LiveWire has cost, where the 2025 profit actually came from, what “Back to the Bricks” commits to and leaves out, and what a 2027 Harley-Davidson looks like if the plan works exactly as written.
Back to the Bricks,
Down to Breakeven
What LiveWire costs the parent, and what the plan leaves out. Sixteen sections in six parts: the arithmetic, the sale, the subsidiary, the plan, the bet, the final word. Linked source index, open items and corrections published.
Read the brief → The seriesFour parts,
37 slides
The condensed version: The Arithmetic, The Sale, The Subsidiary, The Bricks.
View the series →PDFs
The full brief registered readers
Part 1: The Arithmetic
Part 2: The Sale
Part 3: The Subsidiary
Part 4: The Bricks
Route cards · one per post
The route ·
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No. 03 · Harley-Davidson: Outside In
Sixty-six years of buying what it could build. Every brand Harley-Davidson ever bought was sold or shut, with the same sentence: Aermacchi, Holiday Rambler, Buell, MV Agusta. MV Agusta alone lost $268 million in twenty-four months and went back to the seller for a euro. Alta was a stake too small to disclose, gone in six months. StaCyc cost $14.9 million and now outsells LiveWire thirty-three to one. The rule that falls out: Harley builds when the product carries the full brand at the full price, and buys, licenses or partners for everything below it. Kept when it feeds the dealer, dropped when it competes with the badge. The Sprint, on a Hero engine with its plant undecided, is the test.
Harley-Davidson:
Outside In
Fourteen sections in six parts. The record 1960–2026 in one table, the MV Agusta sale agreement, Alta’s Form D chain, the StaCyc earn-out, the Sprint rhyme. Linked source index, ten open items, a published corrections log.
Read the brief → The seriesFour parts,
42 slides
The condensed version, in the order the brief reads: The Record, Same Sentence, Too Small to Say, The Sprint and the Final Word.
View the series →PDFs
The full brief registered readers
Part 1: The Record
Part 2: Same Sentence
Part 3: Too Small to Say
Part 4: The Sprint & the Final Word
Route cards · one per post
The route ·
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How these are built
- Primary documents first. Figures come from filed financial statements or are computed from them, and the computation is shown.
- Derived figures are labelled: per-unit economics, trailing-twelve-month revenue, breakeven volumes.
- Fact and opinion are separated. Sourced analysis and judgment sit in different sections, and each says which it is.
- Corrections are published, dated, in a log at the end of each brief.
- No positions are held in any company covered: long, short, or derivative.