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Ground Truth No. 03 · Draft · Rev. 1
Ground Truth No. 03 · Harley-Davidson, Inc. · September 2026

Harley-Davidson:Outside
In

Sixty-six years of buying what it could build

WHAT HARLEY-DAVIDSON REACHED OUTSIDE FOR, 1960–2026 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 scale change Aermacchi sold 1978 Holiday Rambler sold 1996 Eaglemark kept: HDFS Buell shut 2009 MV Agusta sold for €1, 2010 Street / Bawal built; exited 2020 Milwaukee-Eight built; kept Alta gone in 6 months StaCyc kept: 21,633 units Qianjiang kept: licence Hero kept: licence Rev Max built; kept LiveWire SPAC 2027? Dust · Honcho via LiveWire BOUGHT A BRAND: SOLD OR SHUT BOUGHT A CHANNEL OR A COMPONENT: KEPT BUILT IN-HOUSE HARLEY-DAVIDSON DOESN’T WANT ELECTRIC. IT WANTS FLOOR TRAFFIC.
  • What they saidMay 2026, the new plan: “leveraging existing powertrain, existing platforms” and “executing better with the platforms we already have rather than introducing entirely new ones.” The first new bike is the Sprint, on a 440cc single Hero MotoCorp builds in Rajasthan.
  • What it isThe sixty-sixth year of the same move. Every brand Harley ever bought was sold or shut, with the same sentence. MV Agusta: $105.1M in, $268.4M lost, sold back for €1. Alta: a stake too small to disclose, gone in six months. StaCyc: $14.9M, and it outsells LiveWire 33 to 1.
  • What decided itHarley builds when the product carries the full brand at the full price. Everything below the big twin (a small bike, a balance bike, a battery, a loan book) gets bought, licensed or partnered. It stays when it feeds the dealer. It goes when it competes with the badge.

Harley doesn’t want electric. It wants floor traffic.

Sources: HOG Forms 10-K (FY1994, FY1996, FY2009, FY2010, FY2011, FY2018, FY2019, FY2020, FY2025) · 10-Q (Q3 2008, Q3 2009, Q1 2018, Q3 2018, Q1 2019) · 8-K (11 Jul 2008, 15 Oct 2009, 9 Aug 2010 incl. Ex. 2.1, 24 Sep 2020, 13 Dec 2021)
Faster Faster, Inc. Forms D (2016–2018) · LVWR 8-K (30 Sep 2022; 22 May 2026) and 10-K (FY2022) · LiveWire FY2025 and Q2 2026 results · Hero MotoCorp X440 release (3 Jul 2023) · H-D call transcripts Q1 2019, Q3 2021, Q2 2025, Q1 2026, Q2 2026
MV Agusta · loss from discontinued ops, 2008–10
$268.4M
On $105.1M of consideration. Sold back for €1 with €20M of Harley cash inside.
Alta Motors · amount invested, per every H-D filing
Not stated
Bounded by Alta’s Form D: at most $5.65M. Out in six months.
StaCyc · total consideration, Q1 2019 10-Q
$14.9M
$7.0M cash, a $6.5M earn-out paid in full. Every volume target hit.
StaCycs per LiveWire motorcycle, 2025
33 : 1
21,633 balance bikes. 653 motorcycles. 76% of LiveWire’s product revenue.
Four numbers from the filings. The rest of the record is in §01.
The route · six parts, one thesis
  1. Part I
    The record
    Sixteen moves in one table. Brands go. Channels and components stay.
  2. Part II
    Same sentence
    Buell and MV Agusta. $125M and $268M. “Focus on the Harley-Davidson brand.”
  3. Part III
    Too small to say
    Alta, never disclosed. StaCyc, $14.9M, and it outsells LiveWire 33 to 1.
  4. Part IV
    What it builds
    Two engines kept. One small bike lost money and left. The rule.
  5. Part V
    The Sprint rhyme
    1960: an Aermacchi. 2026: a Hero. Same hole, somebody else’s engine.
  6. Part VI
    The final word
    Seven CEOs, one cycle. LiveWire is on the Buell script. What it was for.
00 · Start here

The finding, and the trail that led to it

Harley-Davidson has spent sixty-six years buying, licensing and partnering its way into every segment below the big twin, and building from within only when the product carries the full brand at the full price. Here is how three old filings led me to that sentence.

Start with what they said. May 5, 2026, the Q1 call, the new CEO explaining the plan: “By using and leveraging existing powertrain, existing platforms, we can have a much broader assortment of motorcycles to present.” The first new motorcycle under that plan is the Sprint. Its engine is a 440cc single that Hero MotoCorp co-developed with Harley and builds in Neemrana for the X440, a ₹2.29 lakh motorcycle. On the same call: “we’re finalizing the specific production plans.” A company that says it will lean on the platforms it already has is opening the plan with one it does not own.

That sent me back through the record. Not the press record; the filed one. What did Harley pay each time it reached outside the building, what did it get, and how did it end?

  • Open the FY2009 and FY2010 10-Ks and MV Agusta is not the “~$163M” everyone quotes. It is $268.4M of net loss from discontinued operations in twenty-four months, on $105.1M of consideration, $20.1M of which was written off on the day it closed.
  • Open the 8-K of August 9, 2010 and the sale agreement is attached. The shares went for €1. The U.S. company for $1. A €103.8M receivable for another euro. Harley put €20.0M into escrow on the way out.
  • Search every 10-Q and 10-K Harley filed in 2018 and 2019 for “Alta.” One hit, one sentence, in a press release. No amount. Alta’s own Form D chain bounds it at $5.65M.
  • Open the Q1 2019 10-Q and StaCyc cost $14.9M. LiveWire’s carve-out statements show the earn-out was paid in full. In 2025 it sold 21,633 units to LiveWire’s 653.
  • Line them up by what each one was for and the pattern writes itself: the finance company and the balance bikes were bought to feed the dealer, and they stayed. The brands were bought to be a second Harley, and they went.

None of this is secret. All of it is in the exhibits, and most of it has not been read in a decade.

The trail, in five documents

The order I read them in. Each one sent me to the next.

  1. “Existing platforms.” Starrs on the plan, and on the Sprint: “we’re finalizing the specific production plans.” The engine is Hero’s. Why does a company with the Milwaukee-Eight not build a 440?
  2. $115.4M. The impairment, fourteen months after closing. Consideration €68.3M, goodwill $85.8M, IPR&D of $20.1M written off at once. The Buell decision, taken the same week, is in the 10-Q beside it.
  3. €1. §2.1.1(a): the MV Agusta shares “for a consideration of Euro 1 (one).” §7.1.1: a capital increase of €20,000,000. §7.2.2(a): the earn-out “finally and irrevocably waived.” The 10-K says “nominal consideration.” This is what nominal means.
  4. $20,843,998. Alta’s round, closed by amendment four weeks before Harley’s announcement. Six investors and $5.65M added since July. Harley’s own filings never give a number; this is the ceiling.
  5. $14.9 million. StaCyc: $7.0M of cash, $9.5M of goodwill, and a stated reason: “building the next generation of riders.” Then LiveWire’s FY2025 release: 21,633 of them, against 653 motorcycles.

Four instruments

The paperwork that decided each ending.

MV Agusta · sale
€1, €1, and $1
Three nominal payments, €20M of operating capital contributed, the 2016 earn-out waived. Eleven days of drafting between the board’s July 31 signature and the August 6 close. Harley received “nominal consideration” and reported “an immaterial loss on the date of sale.”
31 Jul 2010 · closed 6 Aug 2010 · Ex. 2.1
Buell · 10-Q note
$125M, estimated
Board approval 14 Oct 2009; production ended that month. ~$70M in incentives, inventory and operating costs, ~$14M of fixed assets, ~$9M of severance, ~$32M of contracts. The realized total was never broken out again.
Q3 2009 10-Q · Note 19
Alta · Form D chain
Five notices, no Harley
Alta’s legal name. Five Reg D notices from 2016 to 2018. The equity round closed 2 Feb 2018 at $20.84M. A $5.0M bridge note started selling 27 Jul 2018; $2.45M placed with four investors. Harley’s exit leaked sixteen days later.
Mar 2016 – Aug 2018 · CIK 1620298
Dust · asset purchase
$375,000 cash
Plus $500K of stock, three annual $875K stock installments, and earn-outs up to $11.25M in stock. The Alta structure, done inside LiveWire this time, where a write-off lands in a segment the parent has already told investors to look past.
18 May 2026 · LVWR 8-K, 22 May 2026
  • Why. Back to the Bricks is scored on HDMC alone and opens with a licensee’s motorcycle. Whether the Sprint and the 883 get built in Harley’s own plants, at a price where Harley makes money, is the whole test of the plan. The record says what usually happens.
  • Who for. Anyone deciding whether the Sprint is a product or a channel program; anyone holding HOG into a 2027 that contains the 883, a Sprint, and a LiveWire decision; and the people at Juneau Avenue who already know this and cannot say it.
  • What I did. Read the acquisition, impairment and discontinued-operations notes for every outside move since 1993, the sale agreement for MV, Alta’s Form D chain, and LiveWire’s carve-out statements for StaCyc. Derived figures are arithmetic on filed numbers, shown in the captions. Secondary sources are used only where flagged.
  • Who I am. I ran product at Harley-Davidson: Touring, CVO, Trike. I have sat in the meeting where a small-bike program gets its cost target. §13.
Part I Part II Part III Part IV Part V Part VI
HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. · NYSE: HOG
Part I

The record

Every time Harley-Davidson reached outside the building, 1960 to 2026, from the filings.

The pointSixteen moves. Every purchased brand is gone. Every purchased channel or component is still here: the finance company, the balance bikes, the licences, the assembly lines.
Why it mattersThe pattern is the argument. Once you see what stayed and what went, the Sprint, the 883 and LiveWire stop being three decisions and become one.
Image to source
Varese, 1961
An Aermacchi-built Harley-Davidson Sprint on the line at Schiranna. The first time Harley filled the gap below the big twin with somebody else’s motorcycle.
Sketch: 1961 Aermacchi Harley-Davidson Sprint 250, single-cylinder, horizontal engine, on a factory assembly line in Varese, Italy. Ink and wash, period photo feel, 3:2, no logos.
01 · The record
HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. · NYSE: HOG

Sixteen moves, one table

Every figure is from a filing or a company release unless marked ~, which means a secondary source and an open item. “n/d” means the company never disclosed it. Read the last column first.

YearMoveIn / outCost, as filedHow it ended
196050% of Aermacchi’s motorcycle division, VareseOut~$250KThe original Harley-Davidson Sprint, 250/350 singles. Full ownership early 1970s. Sold to the Castiglionis (Cagiva) 1978
1986Holiday Rambler, recreational vehiclesOut~$155MSegment sold 1996, ~$105M, gain $22.6M, “in order to concentrate on its core motorcycle business”
199349% of Eaglemark Financial Services; the rest Nov 1995Out$10M + ~$45MBecame HDFS. $248M of operating income in 2024. 9.8% sold to KKR/PIMCO at ~1.75× book, 2025
199349% of Buell; substantially all of the rest Feb 1998Out~$500K; 1998 n/dShut Oct 2009. Announced exit cost ~$125M. “Focus both our effort and our investment on the Harley-Davidson brand”
2008MV Agusta + CagivaOut€68.3M ($105.1M)Sold back to Castiglioni 6 Aug 2010 for €1 + $1 + €1, with €20.0M of H-D cash contributed. Net loss from discontinued ops $268.4M in 24 months
2013Street 500/750, Revolution X, Bawal (India)Inn/d“First all-new platform in 13 years.” India manufacturing exited Sept 2020, ~$75M restructuring. “Unprofitable,” per the CFO, Q3 2021
2016Milwaukee-EightInn/dStill the Big Twin
2017Rayong, Thailand plantIn, offshoren/dRev Max models for the U.S. moved there 2024; returning to York and Menomonee Falls before 2027
2018Equity in Alta Motors (Faster Faster, Inc.) + co-developmentOutnever statedH-D out by August; Alta closed 17 Oct 2018; BRP bought the IP. H-D’s own Silicon Valley EV R&D facility announced 5 Sep 2018
2019StaCyc, Inc.Out$14.9MLiveWire’s only profitable unit. 21,633 units in 2025
2019Qianjiang (Geely), 338cc for ChinaOut, licencen/dX350/X500 in Asia. The X350RA is the U.S. Riding Academy bike, not for sale
2020Hero MotoCorp, India distribution and brand licenceOut, licencefollows ~$75M exitX440 launched Jul 2023, Hero-built, ₹2.29 lakh. The Sprint’s engine
2021Revolution Max / Pan AmericaInn/dPan America, Sportster S, Nightster. Thailand 2024–26; coming home
2021LiveWire SPAC; KYMCO $100MOut, capitalH-D $100M; $1.77B EV923 units TTM; $422M of consolidated losses (No. 02)
2025HDFS: 4.9% each to KKR and PIMCO; >$5B of receivables; two-thirds forward flowOut, capital~$1.25B inHDFS operating income guided from $490M to $55–70M (No. 02 §2)
2026Dust Motorcycles, Inc., via LiveWireOut$375K cash + stockPre-revenue; product “2H 2026”; earn-outs to $11.25M
2026S4 Honcho, produced by KYMCOOut, contract mfg$4,999 / $5,499KYMCO exclusive for five years on the maxi-scooter and “any future products on which the parties may agree”
2026–27Sprint (Hero 440 single); Sportster 883In?Sprint production “being finalized”; sub-$6,000 (Jul 2025) now “less than $10,000” (trade). The 883: first air-cooled twin program since the Evolution

Two patterns fall out before any analysis. Every outside purchase that carried its own brand was sold or shut: Holiday Rambler, Buell, MV Agusta, Aermacchi. Three of the four went within two years of a CEO change, with the same sentence. Every outside move that carried no badge into a Harley segment has been kept, quietly: Eaglemark’s balance sheet, StaCyc’s balance bikes, Hero’s engine, Qianjiang’s twin, KYMCO’s assembly line, KKR’s capital. They feed the dealer without competing with the Harley-Davidson brand.

FIG 01What the outside moves cost to unwind$ millions · filed where available
MV Agusta 2008–10, filed $268M Buell 2009, estimate $125M India / Street 2020, estimate $75M LiveWire 2022–Q2 2026, filed $422M
CalculatedMV Agusta is the filed net loss from discontinued operations, 2008–2010. Buell and India are the company’s announced estimates; neither was ever reconciled in a later filing. LiveWire is the consolidated operating loss from the spin through Q2 2026, from No. 02. Alta is missing from this chart because there is no number to put on it.
So what · §01
The pointHarley-Davidson has gone outside for a product sixteen times in sixty-six years. The brands are gone. The channels and components stayed.
Back to the thesisWhat survives a CEO change at Harley is whatever makes money on somebody else’s product on a Harley dealer’s floor.
OutlookThe Sprint is a Hero engine, the Honcho is a KYMCO build, Dust is an option. Read the table and you know which column each is in.
Part I Part II Part III Part IV Part V Part VI
HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. · NYSE: HOG
Part II

Same sentence

Buell and MV Agusta: what the two biggest purchases cost, and the words used both times.

The pointBuell: ~$125M to shut, sixteen years after the first stake. MV Agusta: $105.1M in, $268.4M of losses in twenty-four months, sold back for a euro with €20M of Harley cash inside.
Why it matters1996: “concentrate on its core motorcycle business.” 2009 and 2010: “focus … on the Harley-Davidson brand.” The words repeat because the decision does: a second brand that competes with Harley-Davidson for engineering dollars does not survive the next CEO.
Image to source
East Troy, October 2009
The last Buell on the line. Production ended at the end of the month; employment on December 18.
Sketch: A single sportbike at the end of an otherwise empty assembly line, fluorescent light, workers’ jackets on hooks, Wisconsin winter through the loading door. Charcoal sketch with a blue-grey wash on a dark chalkboard ground, vignetted edges; any people seen from behind or with faces unresolved, no identifiable ethnicity; 3:2, no logos.
Registered readers continue here

10 more sections behind one form.

Name and email, once, and this browser is through for a year: the rest of the brief, every figure linked to its filing, the source index, and the whole thing as a PDF. The open items and the corrections log stay public; that is the method.

02 · Buell  ·  03 · MV Agusta  ·  04 · Alta Motors  ·  05 · StaCyc  ·  06 · Built in-house  ·  07 · Aermacchi to Hero  ·  08 · The 883  ·  09 · The cycle  ·  10 · Analysis, not reporting  ·  11 · Sources

12 · Method & standing

Who wrote this, and how

William Weppner
Contact Patch Advisory

I’m an independent expert witness and litigation consultant. EV and powersports product liability. Contact Patch Advisory is the practice.

I spent most of my career inside the companies this brief is about. At Harley-Davidson I ran product for Touring, CVO and Trike, the lines that pay for everything else on Juneau Avenue. Before that, sales planning lead for the CRF range at Honda and planning lead on the Grom, the bike that still defines the segment the Sprint is walking into. Later, product development at Super73, OEM sales at Sena, and Faction MX, which I founded and sold.

I race motocross at expert level and I ride constantly. It matters here for one reason: when this brief says what a bike costs to build, what a dealer can retail in a season, or how much a segment will absorb, those are calls I made for a living, not things I pulled from a spreadsheet.

Nobody else is doing this particular job. The analysts don’t read manufacturing agreements. The powersports people don’t read 10-Ks. I do both, and the gap between what these companies announce and what they file is where the story usually is.

Practice
Independent expert witness & litigation consultant, EV and powersports product liability
Harley-Davidson
Product Manager: Touring, CVO, Trike
Honda
Sales Planning Lead, CRF line; planning lead, Grom
Super73
Director of Product Development
Sena Technologies
Director of OEM Sales
Faction MX
Founder; sold to private equity
Also
Amphenol Nova Sensor · LID Technology · expert-level motocross racer

Left: the Low Rider on the freeway. Middle: leading a group through the canyons. Right: the day job on weekends.

Standing and independence

I hold no position in Harley-Davidson, LiveWire Group, Hero MotoCorp, KYMCO, or any company named here: long, short, or derivative. I have no engagement, adverse or friendly, with any of them. I know Marc Fenigstein, Alta’s co-founder, and have worked with him since Alta closed; his account quoted in §04 is public record and is identified as his.

Where a conclusion rests on my time in the industry rather than a document, I say so. Where an earlier version of this was wrong, the fix is in the log at §13, not made quietly. If something here is wrong, tell me.

Method

Primary documents first. Every dollar figure on MV Agusta, Buell, StaCyc, Eaglemark, India, Dust and LiveWire is from a filing, linked in §11. Alta’s bound is from Alta’s own Form D chain, and is marked as an inference.

Derived figures are labelled. Loss-to-consideration multiples, loss per month, units per unit, revenue per unit and the Form D increment are arithmetic on filed numbers; the script is in the repo at tools/gt03/calc.py.

Fact and opinion are separated. §§01–09 are sourced. §10 is judgment and says so. Where a reading rests on my time in the industry (the York cost base, the planning-office calculation) it is tagged Industry context.

No inside sources. Nothing here rests on anything I was told. The public record carries every claim.

Evidence status

Major findings carry one of five tags, so a reader can see at a glance what kind of claim is being made and how to attack it.

DocumentedStated in a filing, contract, release or transcript, and linked to it.
CalculatedArithmetic on documented numbers, with the computation shown.
InferredA conclusion supported by more than one documented fact, but stated by none of them.
Industry contextMy professional experience or established industry practice, not a document.
UnverifiedPlausible, and not independently establishable from public information.
13 · Open items & corrections

What is not yet nailed down, and what Rev. 0 got wrong

Ten open items. Anything in this list is tagged Unverified where it appears above. The corrections log is public policy: nothing is fixed silently.

#ItemStatus
1Alta investment amountNot in any H-D filing (full-text search, 2018–2019). The bound in §04 is inferred from Faster Faster, Inc.’s Form D chain. The FY2018 10-K MD&A paragraph on investment income was not retrieved. It is the one place an unnamed write-off might be described.
2“Alta Motors” in LiveWire’s 10-KsLiveWire’s FY2024 and FY2025 10-Ks contain the string (EDGAR full-text hit); location not retrieved, probably an officer biography.
3Aermacchi1960 price (~$250K), 1978 sale price, Sprint volumes and the year of full ownership (1972–74) are secondary only.
4Holiday Rambler purchase price$155M is trade press (Family RVing, 2003); the 1986 annual report is not on EDGAR.
5Buell 1993 price and cumulative units~$500K and 135,000+ / 136,923 are secondary.
6Hero X440 volumes; Sprint build source8,974 (Apr–Dec 2024) is Autocar Professional’s. Neither Harley nor Hero has confirmed Hero builds the Sprint. Check the dealer-meeting materials and the Q3 call.
7Sprint price; 883 price and plant“Less than $10,000” and “~$10,000 / York” are press paraphrases of the 5 May 2026 investor deck. Fetch the deck.
8Milwaukee-Eight and Rev Max program costsNot in either release; check capex commentary 2014–2020.
9LiveWire TTM units923 to June 2026 is from No. 01; the Q1 2026 release was not re-pulled.
10Realized India exit charge$75M is the estimate for actions approved September 2020; FY2020 restructuring was $130.0M for all 2020 actions and does not break India out.

Corrections log

Rev. 0 (8 September 2026) was an outline built from secondary sources. Rev. 1 (9 September 2026) corrects it on reading the filings.

What was claimedWhat the document said
MV Agusta: “~$163M of losses in 24 months.”That is the 8-K’s “prior write-downs of $162.6 million, net of tax,” which is impairments only. The filed net loss from discontinued operations is $268.4M (2008–10), $217.4M after the Q4 2011 tax reversal.
MV sale: “€1 with €20M of H-D cash inside.”Right but incomplete: three nominal payments (€1 shares, $1 U.S. LLC, €1 for a €103.8M receivable), €20.0M into escrow, earn-out waived.
StaCyc 2025 units: 21,141.21,633 (LiveWire FY2025 release). Ratio to motorcycles 32 → 33.
HDFS: “9.8% to KKR/PIMCO, ~$6B book sold.”4.9% each to KKR and PIMCO (9.8% collectively, FY2025 10-K) and “over $5 billion” of receivables (30 Jul 2025 release).
Thailand plant, 2018.Announced 25 May 2017; producing 2018.
“Zeitz, 2025: unprofitable” on Street.The on-the-record statement is CFO Gina Goetter’s, Q3 2021 call. Zeitz said “prune unprofitable motorcycles” without naming Street.
Buell exit cost $125M, stated as fact.It is the October 2009 estimate (Q3 2009 10-Q, Note 19). No filing reports a realized Buell-only total.
Holiday Rambler sold 1996 for ~$50M.The whole Transportation Vehicles segment went for ~$105M, gain $22.6M (FY1996 10-K); ~$50M was the RV division per wire reports.
Alta: H-D “would instead build its own R&D center in Silicon Valley.”Paraphrase. The facility was announced in a separate release, 5 Sep 2018.
Dust: cost undisclosed.Terms are in LiveWire’s 22 May 2026 8-K.
S4 Honcho $4,999.$4,999 Trail; $5,499 Street.
Aermacchi full ownership 1974.Sources split 1972/1973/1974; stated as “early 1970s.”
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